Building something is a series of bets under uncertainty. These models help you test cheaply, find leverage, and avoid the incentives that backfire.
Build the smallest thing that tests your biggest assumption
The network effect: some things get better the more people use them
Optionality: keep choices open when the future is uncertain
Some things gain from disorder — that's antifragile
Most results come from a few causes — the 80/20 rule
Creative destruction: the new can't arrive without burying the old
Comparative advantage: specialize in what you give up least to do
Goodhart's law: when a measure becomes a target, it stops measuring
The cobra effect: when the fix makes the problem worse
Rare, unpredictable events shape history most
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