The overconfidence effect is being surer than we are right — our confidence routinely outruns our accuracy, especially when we know little about something. Examples:
What is the overconfidence effect? Read the full idea →When people say they're 90% certain, they tend to be correct far less than 90% of the time.
Teams confidently promise dates they then blow past — confidence about the future outpaces reality (see the planning fallacy).
Most people rate themselves better-than-average drivers, which simply can't be true for most of them.
A couple of early wins breed certainty, and certainty breeds bigger, riskier bets.
The students who walk out feeling most sure aren't always the ones who scored highest.
That's just how memory works. Lock the overconfidence effect in with a 5-minute active-recall session — spaced repetition, no signup.
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