Home › Examples › The overconfidence effect examplesThe overconfidence effect examples
The overconfidence effect is being surer than we are right — our confidence routinely outruns our accuracy, especially when we know little about something. Examples:
What is the overconfidence effect? Read the full idea →
5 examples of the overconfidence effect
'90% sure' and often wrong When people say they're 90% certain, they tend to be correct far less than 90% of the time.
Project timelines Teams confidently promise dates they then blow past — confidence about the future outpaces reality (see the planning fallacy).
Above-average drivers Most people rate themselves better-than-average drivers, which simply can't be true for most of them.
New investors A couple of early wins breed certainty, and certainty breeds bigger, riskier bets.
Exam confidence The students who walk out feeling most sure aren't always the ones who scored highest.
How to spot it in yourself
When estimating a range you're '90% sure' of, widen it until it feels too wide — that's usually about right.
Attach real probabilities to predictions and check, over time, whether your '80% sure' calls hit 80%.
Run a pre-mortem before committing: assume the plan failed and list why — it surfaces what your confidence hid.
Go deeper — get the full book
Loved these examples? Listen to Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman free with an Audible trial — or read it in full.
As an Amazon Associate, Sticky Idea earns from qualifying purchases, at no extra cost to you. “Listen free on Audible” links to a free Audible Premium Plus trial.
You'll forget most of this by next week.
That's just how memory works. Lock the overconfidence effect in with a 5-minute active-recall session — spaced repetition, no signup.
Try this idea free →
📌 Remember this
One tap adds it to your review queue — we bring it back right before you'd forget.
Related ideas