Thinking, Fast and Slow · Daniel Kahneman

Regression to the mean examples

Curated by · reviewed 2026-06-01

Extreme results are usually followed by more ordinary ones — not because of what you did, but because luck evens out. Don't mistake the bounce-back for cause and effect.

What is regression to the mean? Read the full idea →

5 examples of regression to the mean

  1. The Sports Illustrated jinx

    Athletes 'decline' after a cover not from a curse, but because the cover followed a peak that was always going to come down.

  2. Punishing a bad shot

    A pilot screams after a terrible landing, the next is better, and concludes shouting works — it was just regression.

  3. The hot streak cools

    A salesperson's record month is usually followed by a normal one; nobody changed, the dice did.

  4. Tall parents, average kids

    Galton's original: very tall parents tend to have tall-but-less-extreme children.

  5. A miracle cure

    People try a remedy when symptoms peak, then naturally improve, and credit the remedy.

How to spot it in yourself

You'll forget most of this by next week.

That's just how memory works. Lock regression to the mean in with a 5-minute active-recall session — spaced repetition, no signup.

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