Home › Examples › Regression to the mean examplesRegression to the mean examples
Extreme results are usually followed by more ordinary ones — not because of what you did, but because luck evens out. Don't mistake the bounce-back for cause and effect.
What is regression to the mean? Read the full idea →
5 examples of regression to the mean
The Sports Illustrated jinx Athletes 'decline' after a cover not from a curse, but because the cover followed a peak that was always going to come down.
Punishing a bad shot A pilot screams after a terrible landing, the next is better, and concludes shouting works — it was just regression.
The hot streak cools A salesperson's record month is usually followed by a normal one; nobody changed, the dice did.
Tall parents, average kids Galton's original: very tall parents tend to have tall-but-less-extreme children.
A miracle cure People try a remedy when symptoms peak, then naturally improve, and credit the remedy.
How to spot it in yourself
Before crediting a fix applied to a worst case, ask: would this have improved anyway just by regression?
Judging performance? Expect this year's best and worst to both drift toward average next year — don't over-read either.
To know if an intervention truly worked, compare against a group that didn't get it — not against the extreme that triggered it.
Go deeper — get the full book
Loved these examples? Listen to Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman free with an Audible trial — or read it in full.
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