How Not to Be Wrong · Jordan Ellenberg

Survivorship bias examples

Curated by · reviewed 2026-05-31

Survivorship bias is judging from the winners you can see while the failures stay invisible — so success looks easier and more repeatable than it is. Examples:

What is survivorship bias? Read the full idea →

5 examples of survivorship bias

  1. "Dropouts who got rich"

    Everyone cites the few billionaire dropouts and forgets the millions who dropped out and didn't — the survivors are loud, the rest are silent.

  2. Old buildings and "they don't make them like they used to"

    The flimsy old buildings already fell down. Only the sturdy ones survived to be admired, making the past look better-built than it was.

  3. Successful-founder advice

    Books by people who made it share the habits of survivors — but plenty who failed had the exact same habits. The habit may not be why they won.

  4. Reinforcing returning warplanes

    The classic case: engineers wanted to armour where returning planes had bullet holes — until someone noted the planes hit elsewhere never came back. Armour the gaps, not the holes.

  5. Five-star reviews

    The happiest and angriest customers post; the quiet, average majority don't — so the reviews you read aren't the experience you'll get.

How to spot it in yourself

You'll forget most of this by next week.

That's just how memory works. Lock survivorship bias in with a 5-minute active-recall session — spaced repetition, no signup.

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