Both are about being too sure of yourself. The overconfidence effect is the general gap (confidence beats accuracy); Dunning-Kruger is the specific twist (the least skilled are the most overconfident).
| The Dunning-Kruger effect | The overconfidence effect | |
|---|---|---|
| What it is | Beginners can't see what they don't know | Confidence routinely exceeds accuracy |
| Who | Worst at it, surest about it | Almost everyone, about many things |
| Relationship | A specific case… | …of the broader effect |
If a confident person actually knows very little about the topic, that's Dunning-Kruger. If anyone — expert or beginner — is simply surer than they are right, that's the overconfidence effect. Dunning-Kruger is overconfidence concentrated at the bottom of the skill curve.
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